Before I start, I’d like to review some factual numbers most can agree with. First, I’ll start with the 1918 H1N1 (“Spanish”) flu.
There were actually three waves of the flu. The initial wave was in the first half of 1918, the second, and deadliest was October to December 1918, and the third was in the Spring of 1919.
It is estimated between 50 and 100 million people died and perhaps 500 million people contacted it. (World population at the time was about 1.5 billion, so almost 1/3 of the world came down with the illness.)
We like to believe science was not as advanced in the day, and perhaps that is true, but the interesting takeaway, at least for me, is widespread immunization was not practiced and had no impact in lessening the outbreaks.[1]
All that is background. This isn’t 1918, its 100 years later, and the “claims of science” now drive the news and individual choices/decisions.
The novel coronavirus, (AKA COVID-19, China Virus, Wuhan Virus, and SARS-CoV-2) is this year’s pandemic and in an effort to avoid the devastation of the 1918 H1N1 most of the western nations have gone to the extreme of demanding their citizens remain in isolation and have effectively shut down the economies in the hopes of letting the virus play itself out through lack of social interaction.
As of today, there have been 28,292,846 cases worldwide, of which 6,431,885 have been in the U.S. From a mortality rate, 911,770 deaths, with of which 192, 663 have been here.
It appears, at least on paper, China, where the virus originated, has been far more successful by just stopping the reporting on the number of ill and dying people. Nobody in the media seems at all interested in actually challenging that approach so it must be okay.
So, has the approach of the world been effective? The answer is a resounding – maybe, kinda, sort of.
It looked like we in the US had the virus under control and then we began to reopen the economy and BOOM, the cases grew! States that had horrific death rates remained locked down and their cases remained low. We are now seeing the same kinds of things in Europe. Spain which had a terrible experience and went into almost complete lock-down now has among the highest rate of infections. As a way of explanation, effective 9/11/2020, the USA has a rate of 8,447 cases per million, while Spain has a rate of 12,418/1M[2]
Ultimately, the question for all of us is what is the acceptable level of risk for us as individuals and for a society?
For some, that number appears to be zero, but that will never be achieved. Even when an effective immunization comes out, we can expect to see both adverse reactions to the immunization as well as immunizations that seem to have been ineffective. For the majority though there will be benefit.
For others, that level of acceptable risks seems to be at the levels of mortality we see today. According to the World Health Organization that number should be 3.6%. Today in the U.S. we are at 3%, and here in FL we are actually at 1.9%[3]. So, while the media will shout about the number of cases we have, for me the real concern should be what is the probability it will take a life? In that sense it truly does appear we’ve turned the corner on this pandemic.
As each of us decide what is best for us individually, the one thing I’ve seen as this became a political issue, rather than simply a medical problem, is how one’s political belief in the power of their party’s recommendations is reflected in how they accept risk, both for themselves and for others. From a social perspective that seems a bit crazy, but in a polarized world I guess it is to be expected.
I respect each person’s choice, whether it is to remain cloistered away, wear a mask in limited public excursions, or attempt to return to a fully social life within the guidelines of the state. Sadly, that acceptance does not seem to be a common approach for all.
1 comment:
A well known doctor, when asked by a reporter "When in your opinion will this Covid pandemic be over?" the physician responded "Why ask me? I'm only a doctor, not a politician!"
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