Are We Watching the End of US?

I am not sure there is a model for how global superpowers are to fall into decline, but we have a history of that happening (e.g. Egypt, Assyrians, Rome, The Catholic Church, Colonial Spain).  The thing with previous superpowers is their domination of the world’s history was measured in millenniums and centuries.  If we fall our role as a superpower will be measured in decades.

Since 2016 we’ve seen one party and its media and social allies do all within their power to destroy the two-party system.  From my perspective, it appears this was driven by greed, and a sense of entitlement to rule the masses as they see fit.  In 2016 they rigged their own primary to put forward a woman who viewed herself as entitled to be President, who carried so much baggage that enough traditional democrats chose someone else.  Now they put forward a candidate who, by all rational analysis will be a face on the throne and little more.  That said, some believe other, deeper, things are at play and a “deep state” has actually been running the country for several years, and only those who are acceptable to that “deep-state” can be allowed to sit in the oval office.

What I see coming from the various spokespeople of the Democratic party is a desire for anarchy over order, a threat of continued violence if “we the people” fail to elect the right candidate, even whispers of a “military coup” if the current President doesn’t leave the office.  I wonder how many of the young radicals and supporters of the Democratic party know what kind of apocalypse they are advocating for?  I occasionally see comments from a highly educated liberal who by all indications believes the “right” government is the be-all for solving social problems. 

I readily admit there is an attractive aspect to that, but my life experiences (which include living in several other countries and several states), suggests that Jack (as in Jack and Beanstalk) had a similar view to my young friend.  Trade the cow for a few magic beans and everything will be great.  Of course, it worked out for Jack but not so well for the Giant.  In the final analysis, did the magic beans really make life better for the average citizen? 

Of course, the young urban radicals are all advocating for a Marxist or socialist form of government, while those who’ve seen how unsuccessful those governments have been warning of the dangers.  In the end, it really boils down to who gains the power to suck the wealth from the nation, and what promises they will make to the average citizen who just wants to live a sustainable life safely.  I use Maslow’s hierarchy to define sustainability.

The progressives all want what they believe are modern fundamental rights of free healthcare, the ability to earn a good living, freedom from personal responsibility, and perhaps even self-actualization.  To achieve this, they are willing to transfer many of their currently protected freedoms to the government, as long as it’s the correct government.

So, what happens when we, the United States, fail as a Republic?  There are a lot of options but it would seem unlikely we begin another civil war (although unlikely; it is not out of the question).  The reason I say that is unlikely – with our more mobile society none of us have the loyalty to our home states that drove so many to stand up for the states versus the union, as their politicians fought with each other (e.g. Robert E. Lee).  As we abandon the current constitution and the rule of law for something else, we will put into motion a series of dominos with each one tipping over the next.  For me, the one unknown is what will our military do with all the weapons of mass destruction as the government fails?

So, let’s review what I think a collapse of a Federal Government would look like.

First and foremost, there will be a collapse of the dollar and everything associated with it (which is just about everything).  Our economy and the world’s economy is based on the good faith of the world that the US is strong and trustworthy.  Our federal reserve notes are not based on anything beyond the belief the U.S. government will pay its bills on time.  Once we default on that promise confidence in the dollar will collapse and the world will flounder until it finds a new standard for exchange.  It could be oil, gold, or silver, or more likely the economies of the world will look to another power to be the basis of exchange.  The Peoples Republic of China, as the next strongest nation, behind the United States comes immediately to mind.

That transition, in my opinion, will not be instantaneous, in fact, it will take a good number of years and perhaps make the Great Depression look like a cakewalk.

Once corporations and nations lose faith that the United States can pay its bills we can expect to see our economy go into an inflationary period as money become more and more worthless, until ultimately it will collapse and all the people who are now dependent on the government for their subsistence will find themselves destitute.

Those who think the government must provide them with health care will see it actually  disappears (look at Venezuela) and we will for a time descend into some kind of barter system with an increasingly active black market.  Just like in prohibition and with illegal drugs, that black market will dramatically increase the wealth and strength of organized crime elements.

The historically expected services of police and social infrastructure will shrink as the now various and separate governments try and control the inflationary costs of providing them.  When this occurs, we will see businesses flee the increasing violence of the urban centers.  I believe we are starting to see that migration today as Democratic politicians accept the chaos of groups like Antifa and BLM.  The large, multination, corporations will continue to survive, although their loyalties will shift depending on whose currency brings them the greatest profit.

At some point, industries will begin to spring up, but worker wages will be at the barely surviving level since they will be competing with other 3^rd world countries to meet the demands of the Chinese and the multinational companies who’ve found where the next generation of wealth is.

Of course, along the way, all the lifetimes of savings, including social security, individual retirement accounts, investments (including property) will disappear and those who look to those monies to live on will have to find some other way to survive.  Those with skills needed by the multinational corporations may do okay, those who are billionaires may see the fall coming and move their wealth to some safe harbor, and those with actual skills will survive during the barter years.  Those living in Universities and with social worker degrees will struggle with us, retirees.

I sure hope I am wrong in this view and it is just the pessimist in me, but more and more people I talk with share similar fears.