The Cost of Democratic Campaign Promises.

Let’s review the promises to Americans (and non-American visitors) made by the Democratic candidates this campaign season.

Top of the list, Universal Healthcare:  According to Bernie Sanders (in a Washington Post interview 31 July 2018), he projects government cost to be $30 to 40 Trillion (over 10 years).  Of course, he goes on to say it would really save $2 trillion by translating private costs into government costs.  Color me skeptical – I’ve zero (nada, zilch, zip) experience where a government cost is ever really less than a private cost.

Student debt forgiveness:  According to Student Loan Hero, published Feb 4, 2019, the current balance of student loans tops out at over $1.56 Trillion with about 45 million Americans carrying debt from their schooling.  There are currently a number of debt forgiveness programs and according to Forbes (2016), we are spending about $170 billion over 10 years on those programs.  So far, all the candidates have voiced some sort of plan that would just wipe some or all the debt off the books, with plans for increased taxation of the ultrarich to pay for it.  Of course, eliminating student debt sounds good, but the real benefactors of this approach are the colleges and universities who can now charge whatever they want and expect students to flock to them in anticipation of a free four, six or maybe ten years of relaxed intellectual/politically sensitive indoctrination.  

Elimination of border security:  On the surface, this promise should save the government about $44 billion a year when we eliminate Homeland Security.  Of course, this $44 billion would be reduced when we can’t just fire federal employees and the Democrats would probably want to keep things like FEMA, and maybe the U.S. Coast Guard, but I have to ask why we would keep the Coast Guard, if we’ve decided anyone and anything can come into the country and there was no need for walls and approved ports of entry.  The real question is how to transition the federal employees from work to welfare, so again that $44 billion would be reduced as the welfare programs are expanded in direct proportion to this new-found government “wealth.”  My guess is we would still spend the $44 billion, just not on things that would impede the mass migration of others into America.

Green New Deal:  All the candidates have jumped on the “Green New Deal” train, although the Senators in the mix refused to vote for it when push came to shove.  This is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY 14) signature legislation publicly intended to save humanity from extinction in 14 years and privately intended to eliminate the threat of capitalism.  Estimates on the cost for the GND range from $51-93 trillion (2020-2029), but factcheck.org questions those values saying the proposal is too vague to put a real price tag on.  From my personal experience, I’ve not seen where the Congress or the President have really ever come in under original cost estimates so for the sake of argument lets split the difference and call GND a $72 trillion home improvement project.   

Well, those are just the Big-Ticket items I’ve noticed so let’s stop there.  Of course, existing programs like Social Security, Welfare, and Defense will continue their expansions through the normal budget cycle, but those will happen regardless of who is in the White House.  The only question that really remains unanswered is what happens when we have more debt than we can pay and the rest of the world stops believing in the dollar as a basis for international trade?  I’m sure there is a Nobel Laureate Economist somewhere who would have a theory on that, but Paul Krugman’s pronouncements on the economy have routinely been wrong so who should I trust?  The same MIT dude who admitted they had to lie to the American people to get the Patient Protection and Affordable Health Care Act (AKA Obamacare) passed?  Sorry, no he is an admitted liar.