Everyone, and by everyone, I mean anyone who puts their opinion out for public consumption, likes to forecast the future. I am no exception, although I realize I am not all that great at it. If I was I wouldn’t be worrying about upcoming bills or the future of the nation as I would already know it.
My first introduction to the forecasting business was back in 1989 when I attended a big joint exercise planning conference for Flintlock ’90. The exercise had been going on for a number of years, and I was sent as the wing plans officer for the 39th SOW. I had with me planners from the 7th, 67th, and 21st SOS. We were meeting up with the planners from SOCEUR, as well as the Army and Navy units that would participate in this theater-wide exercise.
The planner from the 7th cautioned me that the Army National Guard and Reserve Special Forces reps would be asking for all kinds of airdrop support, but when it came time for the actual exercise no one would actually jump out of the airplanes. I had been in the business long enough to know this forecast was probably based on experience. The gentleman who had made the prediction proved exactly right. In each and every case there was some unique and compounding issue that meant the SF A-teams needed to be landed at a nearby airport and allowed to take a comfy bus into where they were supposed to do their snake-eating stuff. Although, how they found snakes in Norway in April remains a mystery to me.
Here is what I’ve come to believe after starring at my cracked crystal ball.
- Self-awareness on the part of media celebrities and “mediaholic” politicians will continue to decline with direct proportion to their ability to broadcast their thoughts through venues like FaceBook, Instagram, and Twitter.
- Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) will expand to pandemic levels as we approach the upcoming Congressional mid-term election.
- Some in the GOP will continue to talk about the need to reduce the national debt, although none of them really believe a word they are saying.
- The Stock Market will enter into a period of real volatility as they see Government spending rise unchecked and government deregulation is slowed because all the easy regulations have already been ended.
- Government fraud will increase as everyone attempts to get a bigger piece of the bigger pie and the number of regulators is decreased.
- The Democrats will focus on TDS and DREAMERS as their primary issue during the upcoming elections, and the only places this will play well are in districts where they already have a democratic representative (with a few exceptions). They do not seem capable of identifying policies that will bring a broader segment of society into the fold.
- Through their own stupidity, the GOP will lose the Senate because they have proven themselves as unprincipled as their opponents. In close races, their choices on debt, immigration, and TDS just might make the difference that costs them the race.
- And finally, as we pour money back into the military we will spend it on hardware rather than the fundamental problem of figuring out the right size of the armed forces and beginning what would be a long-term effort to fix it. The reason for this is simple, buying stuff is a lot easier, and perhaps cheaper, than building and caring for a skilled and qualified force.
In Special Operations we’ve come to accept as truth words first written in the 1980’s by John Collins, USA (Retired)[1], the first of these imperative’s is “Humans are more important than hardware.” In their quest for superiority decision makers always look to technology as a solution to the human needs/problems, but the need for humans with the right qualities is inescapable for all the services. As our forces are stretched to the breaking point we see the impact of trying to do too much with too few. It is amusing (for me) to see the public questions about why retention rates are declining and the survey’s the services conduct to try and figure out why they are so low. Is our senior political and military leadership really so out of touch with the men and women they are to lead they really don’t know what is going on or is it just a game they must play when they can’t offer a reasonable solution?
Theodore Roosevelt is often quoted as saying “speak softly but carry a big stick” when talking about the use of force or violence to achieve an objective. Every President since Franklin has used that big stick at one time or another in their presidency to either affect global events or react to some domestic issue by diverting attention or achieving a national consensus. Obviously, if you use the stick too often it tends to splinter and break. It seems we are at that point now and I wonder will it still be useful when it is really needed?
Well, that’s about it for my crystal ball. It just fell off the table and I must glue it back together.
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