Just Curious

If the world doesn't end at the end of the Mayan calendar does everyone get a do over?

Questions on a Saturday in January

Before I start my real work today, and as I sip my coffee, a couple of questions keep running around in my head so I thought I would ask them aloud.

Why can’t you try major appliances and home fixtures before you buy them?  Seriously, you are up the creek if you put in a toilet and don’t like the way if flushes.

I’ve got the “we’ve got to conserve energy” thing, kind of, but why does the government think the world will be better when we change from incandescent light bulbs to halogen/CFL/LED/candles?  Who did the business case analysis on this?   Has anyone considered the post use impacts of hazardous waste?

In the world of oil exploration hydraulic fracturing (also called “fracking”) seems increasingly popular as we explore for smaller herds of dead dinosaurs.  Who fixes the problems to our water supply when they frack up the water table?

Just how many people do we need in the military and who tells the President no when we don’t have enough to go all over the world showing the nation and world what a great leader he/she is?  Who says to him/her that only one soldier is not enough to guard the kingdom?

It’s a New Year, But Has Anything Changed?

USA Today, Opinion Column: Black public servants bear brunt of cuts.

This column, in USA Today, is unfortunately indicative of our inability to talk or debate any subject without bringing the matter of race immediately to the forefront.  With it comes the question of expectations and legitimacy.  Dr. Julianne Malveaux, as president of “a small, private, historically Black liberal arts college for women” clearly has a social and political agenda to push.  She makes the statement that Black citizens will bear the brunt of layoffs when federal and state governments when they begin the inevitable process of downsizing.  To me that means these layoffs will push more Blacks out of work than non-Blacks.  Yet her numbers do not support her supposition. 

Perhaps as an economist she is trained to ignore the obvious and see deeper meaning in the math, or perhaps there are facts not in evidence in the article that she attempts to convey.  For example, she talks of the financial difficulties of the Post Office and its need to close offices and terminate 100,000 employees.  She then says 21% of the workforce is Black.  Taken at face value those two statements suggest that 21,000 (more or less) Black employees should be laid off, if the layoffs are non-discriminatory.  That would leave 79,000 (more or less) non-Black workers laid off.  I don’t see the brunt of layoffs being carried by the Blacks here, unless there is some other determinant, for example the layoffs and closing will come in areas that are predominately minority areas where a larger percentage of the workforce is Black.  That qualifier is never discussed.

When talking of the public sector workforce she outlines how a greater percentage of Blacks then non-Blacks have entered that force because earnings and advancement opportunities are greater than in the private sector for them.  Why is that?  Is it because there is little competition for advancement in the public sector, and once you have your job historically you are not likely to loose it, or since the organization is not profit driven it will maintain all workers, not just those who strive to excel? 

At what point do we focus on building a strong economy and not using the government to further experiments in social engineering?  At what point do we hold all citizens equal with the same rights and entitlements?  When does race become not the focus of our social arguments but a reason to celebrate our individual heritage and diversity? 

End of Year Observations

It is traditional to look forward at the beginning of the New Year, but before I do I would like to look back on a few events of this past year so I can place the next one in context.

What will stand out for me as the central theme 2011 was the on-going political warfare both central parties engaged in.  The brinksmanship each engaged in looking for a lever against the opposition meant they put governing aside.  While I take issue with this, and there is enough blame to be had by both sides, I see the Progressive democrats, and an increasingly isolated President, as the major contributors for the following reasons.

a)     The decision to call the fiscal conservative movement, the Tea Party, terrorists and racists.

b)     The choice to begin an “us versus them” campaign where they pit the lower and middle class against the wealthy in an attempt to force a Republican stand

c)      Their blatant support of the #Occupy Wall Street protests, actually an extension of the class warfare they began earlier

Both houses of Congress continue their downward slide in voter confidence and I think this will be problematic for both parties in the upcoming elections.  I don’t think I am alone in my belief that no incumbent is worthy of reelection.  It is interesting the mainstream media chooses to ignore this quiet movement, but when long time party strongholds like New York’s 9^th Congressional District switch from Democratic to Republican in the election caused by the infamous Anthony Weiner scandal it should be some indicator to everyone that 2012 will be a very interesting year.  The real question is will the normal voter apathy continue to allow organizers to dominate the election process.

The government’s inability to control the national debt and move towards a balanced budget will be a big issue next year, just as it was most of this year.  This is an area the Republicans win if they could ever get their feet out of their mouths and show a valid strategy that actually results in a smaller government, not some set of mythical bench marks that allow the Democrats to cast them as the party out to take away social security.

We American’s have a short attention span.  When was the last time anyone thought about the tsunami that washed over Japan, especially now that they are gaining control of the Nuclear reactors?  Who knows that the debris from that event is already beginning to wash ashore on our west coast?

Debris found near Vancouver, 29 Dec 11

And as a closing thought, I wonder how well our advocacy for the overthrow of the Egyptian and Libyan governments is going to work out for us this next year?  I am guessing we will soon regret those inspired interventions.

Poor Social Skills

I would make a poor politician.  I like my privacy, I don’t like to mingle with people I don’t know or share a common bond with, I can leave most organizational parties within a few minutes of arriving and I am terrible at small talk.  But I have to believe an effective politician is one who can build networks, communicate ideas, and when necessary socialize with both friends and opponents to find common ground for good legislation.

I find it amazing we have elected a President who does not believe it is necessary to associate with other politicians New York Times, "Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing".  This explains so much about why we see the President telling people what they need to do, not rolling up his sleeves to help make it happen. 

I don’t envy anyone who thinks they want to be President, and I doubt the job comes with an instruction manual, but if you want to say you are the leader of the nation, there has got to be something besides your inner circle of friends involved in the process.  As the article points out, President Jimmy Carter, felt himself an outsider and did not socialize enough when he was in office.  President Clinton, on the other hand had no problems with small group gatherings.  You can decide who was more effective, the one who lost his office because of runaway unemployment, high interest rates and failed military operations, or the one who served two terms with an adversarial Congress and managed to leave with a balanced budget?

Laughable Political Excuses and Unthinking Comparisons

Just before Christmas, a leading Republican Presidential candidate was handed a lump of coal for his stocking when the Virginia Republican party announced he, and several others, had failed to submit the prerequisite number of valid signatures to secure a place on the ballot.  The required number was 10,000 registered Republican voters.  Mr. Gingrich submitted something like 11,050 names but not all were registered as Republican voters and those were thrown out.

Since then there has been a broad frontal attack that a) Virginia’s primary is “a failed system” when it excludes a front runner from being the ballot, b) he would pursue a write-in campaign.  Today he, and his campaign manager, is comparing this setback to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.  To that I have but one thing to say – Phooey. 

The attack on Pearl Harbor was on one side a brilliant military operation executed with precision, and from a US standpoint a failure in our intelligence community and government to anticipate correctly where or when Japan would initiate hostilities.  Those failures cost over 2,000+ American lives.  The Gingrich campaign’s failure to get on the ballot was plain and simple a failure in the campaign and for that the fault must lie solely with the Candidate.  There was no opposing unforeseeable brilliance that stopped him.  Yet I don’t see a lot of acceptance of failure on the campaigns part.

The campaign must have access to a statistician, don’t they?  Surely someone would know what the probable rejection rate on petition signatures would be?  Wouldn’t a prudent campaign look to eliminate that risk by submitting enough signatures to account for that?  Ron Paul and Mitt Romney seemed to have broken the code on what was required.

If you and your campaign are not smart enough to figure out the rules of the game and then meet or exceed the minimum requirements are you really smart enough to be President?
Update:  Today (12/29/11) The candidate's story is one of his workers, paid to get signatures, committed fraud.  Now he's just another victim.   

Merry Christmas

To all who read this blog from time to time, I wish you all a Merry Christmas or Happy Hanukkah.  May the coming year be filled with joy.