An Observation on Fear.

The one thing social media is really good at is showing us the polarization of our choices.  Take, for example, the whole idea of self-protection with wearing masks.  While this shouldn’t really be a political debate it has certainly turned into one as those with fear of the COVID-19 pandemic condemning those who question the value of some of the government mandates.  The political parties are happy to take advantage of this division to show their superiority over those who oppose them.

Here in the United States, and hopefully, in Europe, we seem to be on the backside of the crisis.  While a tragically large number of sick and elderly have succumbed to this Chinese virus as of 5/17/2020 (e.g. England 34,546, Italy 31,763, Spain 27,563, France 27,532 and US 88,754) and the rate of mortality for those who’ve been diagnosed is high; as a percent of the total population the mortality rates are not that outrageous (i.e. England .05%, Italy .05%, Spain .06%, France .04% and US .03%)[1].

Let’s compare this to the Avian Flu Pandemic of 1918.  According to the CDC, one third (1/3) of the world’s population (500 million) became infected, and an estimated 50 million died.[2]  Taking this as fact, in gross numbers this means the mortality rate for those infected would be 10% and the total global mortality rate 3%.  In the case of COVID-19 medical science has progressed and our ability to deal with this has also progressed.  According to Johns Hopkins, there have been only 4,656,639[3] confirmed cases and a total death count of 312,188, for a mortality rate of those infected of 6.7% and a total global mortality rate of .004%.  We are not done with this disease, but who among us thinks it will reach the levels of the 1918 episode as we work on treatments and vaccines?

As we begin to recover from this medical crisis what are we to do, and who should we believe? There is an interesting transition in the works right now.  Those who would put all their faith in the “experts” would have us continue with all the protective/restrictive measures we have in place until some undefined point of wellness is reached.  Others who see the effects on the world’s economy would have us remove those restrictions and begin to return to a post-pandemic world (however that is defined).   These two competing views are on-going right now, with all the pseudo-experts weighing in with all the emotional appeals they can dig up.  Which is really the reason for this post.  It got me thinking about “experts” and the fear they can generate within the populations they seem to speak to and for.

Here is my question for the experts.  Were the political-military experts ever able to predict the advent of wars, their cost, or their outcome?  If so why didn’t they stop them, if not why are they called experts?  Were the intelligence experts able to accurately forecast the sneak attacks of our opponents (e.g. Pearl Harbor, World Trade Center)?  If so, why didn’t they alert our political-military experts, or if not, why are they called intelligence experts?  Were the economic experts able to foresee the market crashes that led to the global financial crisis?  If so, why didn’t they convince people to alter their at-risk behavior?  Have the political experts ever accurately foreseen the outcomes of truly democratic contests, for example, the 2016 U.S. Presidential election where the DNC experts forecast with a 98% certainty Hillary would win? Were the pandemic medical experts able to see this pandemic coming and how it would actually play out with all their modern modeling techniques?  If so why didn’t the politicians listen to them?  Why were all their modeling forecasts so wrong?  For example, the models showed NY would be overwhelmed and the governor asked for far more ventilators and hospital support than they came close to needing.  The USNS Comfort and the Javits Center was converted into a hospital, but both were hardly used.  There is a cost to this, but at the time the “experts” all said they were absolutely necessary and the politicians all agreed.

Here is my opinion on all those questions.  Experts get to be experts because someone with an agenda wants to call them experts or other “experts” call them such.  Take for example Paul Krugman, a noble laureate in economics, who now writes opinion for the NY Times.  I believe he is viewed as an economics “expert” who when asked about a slight dip in the stock market after Donald Trump was elected said the market would never recover. It took almost a whole day to prove this estimate was based not on some great insight but was a purely emotional response to his grief that Hillary Rodham Clinton had lost.

So, at the end of the day each of us should ask ourselves; are the experts really worth listening to?  Each of us must answer that question -- as well as the two questions which spring from its answer.  How real is the fear they are warning about, and how much fear can I control, or do I want to live with?

It was Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who in his first inauguration speech attempted to assure a nation panicked by the collapse of the stock market that “the only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.”  That advice seems to be as good today as it was when FDR first offered it.  The difference today is we’ve created a generation that is more concerned with their personal desires than the general good of society, and we’ve given a wide forum for individual voices who can spread those fears we all must face.

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[1] All values round to nearest whole 1/100^th percent

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm

[3] Total confirmed is suspect based on the assumption of Chinese under-reporting.