Just killing time, but I figured since the press is making such a big
deal about how many people in the US have tested positive for COVID-19
I'd look at what that really means when compared to others in the world.
Some serious math and research going on, John. The interesting factor is the "reported" figures. One has to wonder how and if the reports are done in the same manner in each country. Maybe the WHO has a standardized method that all countries adhere to?
Sone confounding factors: one is that “Reported” per John Hopkins means a confirmed positive covid test including post mortum.
Two is that a death is ruled a covid death only if they died of covid directly. Underlying conditions that cause death because they were worsened by covid aren’t classified as covid deaths. As example I saw from Italy showed a normal death rate of about 6 for a particular region. The reported covid deaths was about 20, but the total death rate disregarding cause spiked over 150, so many many deaths caysed by the epidemic were either not rreported, or not classified as covid deaths.
I recognize and agree the data reported by almost all sources are subject to some corruption and bias. As was seen in the comment from a friend in Spain she believes the Spanish are under-reporting. There have been similar anecdotal accusations that some locations in the US may be over-reporting due to access to federal funding. Then, of course, we have China and Russia, who would have the world believe this isn't much worse than a mild flu outbreak contained in a small region.
Then, we see reports NY state and NYC have decided not to do post mortem testing on those who die at home. But by all indications, and contrary to your assertion I believe very few locations are reporting COVID-19 deaths is limited to those instances where COVID is the singular cause. That may be true where you work but there is enough information, including my discussion with a real doctor to suggest if the individual has a fatal underlying illness (e.g. chronic heart failure) and dies with a positive COVID-19 test the death is reported as a COVID-19 death. That is also reported from overseas locations like Italy.
3 comments:
Some serious math and research going on, John. The interesting factor is the "reported" figures. One has to wonder how and if the reports are done in the same manner in each country. Maybe the WHO has a standardized method that all countries adhere to?
Sone confounding factors: one is that “Reported” per John Hopkins means a confirmed positive covid test including post mortum.
Two is that a death is ruled a covid death only if they died of covid directly. Underlying conditions that cause death because they were worsened by covid aren’t classified as covid deaths. As example I saw from Italy showed a normal death rate of about 6 for a particular region. The reported covid deaths was about 20, but the total death rate disregarding cause spiked over 150, so many many deaths caysed by the epidemic were either not rreported, or not classified as covid deaths.
I recognize and agree the data reported by almost all sources are subject to some corruption and bias. As was seen in the comment from a friend in Spain she believes the Spanish are under-reporting. There have been similar anecdotal accusations that some locations in the US may be over-reporting due to access to federal funding. Then, of course, we have China and Russia, who would have the world believe this isn't much worse than a mild flu outbreak contained in a small region.
Then, we see reports NY state and NYC have decided not to do post mortem testing on those who die at home. But by all indications, and contrary to your assertion I believe very few locations are reporting COVID-19 deaths is limited to those instances where COVID is the singular cause. That may be true where you work but there is enough information, including my discussion with a real doctor to suggest if the individual has a fatal underlying illness (e.g. chronic heart failure) and dies with a positive COVID-19 test the death is reported as a COVID-19 death. That is also reported from overseas locations like Italy.
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