The Raid

Yesterday afternoon, central time, the US military engaged in an operation called a raid.  The purpose of a raid is not to take and secure territory, it is not to normally intended to engage in a pitched battle, it is to accomplish a specific tactical or strategic purpose.

I don’t know the individuals who were involved but I can tell you the following:

·      The forces chosen for this raid were men trained to a standard far above the average, and they were without exception volunteers

·      The ground force has been identified as SEALS.  SEALS stands for Sea, Air Land.  The SEAL team involved was specifically trained for this type of operation and has been employed for these type of missions since 1981.  They were among the first into Grenada, for Urgent Fury, Rio Haito, during Operation Just Cause, and in Desert Storm they took the hardest missions.  Since 2001 they have been involved in a number of take-downs (a raid intended to capture or kill a terrorist), and at least one of their members has been awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor.

·      The helicopter crews are equally well trained and come from the same group known best for its involvement in the Somalia operations made famous in the book and movie “Blackhawk Down.”

·      This mission was planned, rehearsed and executed based on solid intelligence and the men who executed it did everything they could to minimize unnecessary casualties.  They do this for practical reason’s.  They have a mission to accomplish and piling up unnecessary bodies make it harder to determine they’ve accomplished their primary objective.

·      The President made the decision to employ the force, to execute the mission, and what the rules of engagement were with regards to the primary and secondary targets.

·      If he keeps with the precedents he should formally notify Congress of the operation in accordance with the provisions of the War Powers Act, laying out the rational for action, although the public release may constitute that notification.

So now we have killed Osama bin Laden what will happen?  We should be prepared for a desperate attack somewhere, probably in Afghanistan, but not necessarily.

We can also expect the emotional reaction of joy being manifest in the crowds who react emotionally.  We see the fear of retaliation in the crowds that always fear retaliation and we see questioning from the crowds who always question American action.  What will take a while will be to see the reaction from those terrorists who attempt to retaliate.

·      US Forces will increase their force protection levels

·      Homeland security will increase its threat level

·      The FBI will up its investigations

·      The news media will go off half cocked trying to instill fear in the average viewer based on their need to outdo the others.

The thing to keep in mind in the short term is a terrorist network is like a hydra.  It is designed in a cellular manner so if one cell is compromised the rest survive.  We will see how well bin Laden did at building his network, but there will be a second in command ready to step up.  Will he have the  same authority as bin Laden?  Not likely, but he will probably attempt some violent act to prove his right to lead.  If the military hardens it’s facilities they will attack the weakest target.  The best way to counter this is vigilance.

I am told in the press briefings the strike force recovered a significant amount of intelligence material so perhaps we will be lucky enough to reach into al Qaeda and rip it apart, if so we would be most fortunate because it would be contrary to the security steps bin Laden took to protect himself.