Russia’s Grand Delusion – One Month In

Here we are just a shade over one month into Russia’s war with Ukraine.  All the analysts and all the pundits can’t put Russia back together again.  We can speculate ad nauseum as to what drove its President to begin this war but what we do know with some certainty is he didn’t imagine it would involve him in a protracted land war.  His experience with Georgia lasted 12-days as he annexed parts of Georgia back into greater Russia.  His takeover of Crimea, under the illusion of “self-determination” took a little over a month, but involved only a minimal amount of Russian force, when coupled with the defection of the Crimean military supposedly there to defend the Ukraine state.

In both cases Putin and Russia was condemned by the west, but little else.  European leaders continued to increase their dependence on Russian oil while reducing their defense spending.  Putin continued to enrich himself and his friends.  So how would he not think he could do in Ukraine what he had done in Georgia and Crimea?  What was different?

For one he faced a President who loved his country, more than his wealth.  He faced a people who loved their country and their president, and a military that did not defect to ensure their safety.  

We can compare his actions today with his lack of action two years ago, and say the unknown response of Trump may have delayed his choice, but I think in the end how the United States would react was only a factor of timing.  He waited until a “professional” politician was back in charge.  Someone’s whose rhetoric would outperform his actions.  In other words, a president who was predictable.

The 64-thousand-dollar question is, how will this end?  Wars always end badly.  The loser suffers the worst, but only slightly worse than the winners.  I suspect Ukraine will stand and Russia will grow weary and leave, but with Vladimir Putin that is not a certainty.  It will take western investment and a generation to rebuild Ukraine, for Russia, I’m not sure what will change.  Dictatorial rule is the only thing constant in Russia.